The Kentucky Derby, with its colorful history and exhilarating races, has always been a fertile ground for bettors looking to make smart, calculated bets. Traditionally, access to comprehensive data that could significantly enhance betting strategies has been limited to professionals or those with insider knowledge. However, the democratization of data through advanced technologies, particularly large language models (LLMs) like OpenAI’s GPT, is changing the landscape. Here, we illustrate how publicly available information can be synthesized into a strategic betting approach for the 2024 Kentucky Derby.

Methodology

Using articles detailing odds, post positions, and race performances, we employed an LLM to parse and extract critical data. This approach is part of a broader trend where AI helps level the playing field, providing casual bettors and enthusiasts with insights that were traditionally reserved for a select few.

The analysis included:

1. Post Position Insights: Evaluating historical success rates of various post positions to gauge starting advantages.
2. Odds Analysis: Comparing the odds given to each horse, highlighting potential returns.
3. Performance Metrics: Analyzing the final prep race times to assess current form and stamina.

These elements were then scored and combined to form an overarching strategy, balancing risk and potential returns.

Results: Top Derby Picks 🏇

Our analysis revealed several top contenders, each offering unique advantages based on our comprehensive scoring system:

West Saratoga (Combined Score: 6.14) A prime candidate based on historical post data and attractive odds. This horse combines a favorable post position with high potential returns, making it a standout bet.

Grand Mo the First (Combined Score: 5.70) Despite a modest performance score, the combination of high odds and a relatively advantageous post position makes this horse a potential high-reward bet.

T O Password (Combined Score: 5.54) Strong post position with reasonable odds. This horse is a safer bet that still offers considerable upside.

Society Man (Combined Score: 5.48) Represents a high risk-reward option due to its post at the outermost edge, paired with lucrative odds.

Catalytic (Combined Score: 4.84) Benefits from one of the historically best post positions, providing a balanced option with both a strong chance of winning and respectable odds.